Davis will likely relish the challenge of taking on Albany insiderism.

"Harry Davis, high-speed rail advocate and former candidate for Rochester City Council has also declared his candidacy. Davis will likely relish the challenge of taking on Albany insiderism. Also running is County Legislator Harry Bronson."

http://www.smugtownbeacon.com/news.php?viewStory=497

Battle for Albany Takes Shape -- Does it Matter?
May 1, 2010 State Sen. Dale Volker (R-59th SD) announced his retirement this week. In doing so, he joined Assemblymembers Susan John (D-133rd AD) and Joe Errigo (R-130th AD) in deciding they have had enough of Albany. Since Albany experiences changes in representation about as often as the old Soviet Politburo, one would think these retirements hold out hope for change? But can these seats make a difference in Albany?

By: Aaron E. Wicks
Posted: Saturday, May 1, 2010 12:31 pm

Rochester, NY (May 1, 2010) -- The recent spate of retirements from the state legislature present a rare opportunity: new representatives in Albany who might bring with them a new way of doing business. Here in the Rochester area, three local leaders are stepping down at the end of the year -- two Assemblymembers (1 Democrat, 1 Republican) and 1 Republican Senator. With a desire by voters for change and control of the State Senate possibly in the balance, does the Rochester area hold the keys to Albany's future?

November may still be six months away, but the political picture is on the verge of becoming much more clear. May is traditionally the month that local parties complete their formal designation process. Although the process has little formal significance -- it is essentially a small group of local party leaders who anoint their preferred candidate -- it is the opening of the more public campaign for office. By the end of May, all candidates for office will emerge, as they prepare to collect petition signatures to make the September primary ballot. Thus, within the next four weeks, voters will have a clear idea as to who is seeking office and which incumbents might have battles on their hands.

This makes it a good time to step back and survey the local landscape, speculating as to which candidates might face challenges and where local voters might have real opportunities to elect legislators who might actually seek reform in Albany.

New York State Assembly - Abandon All Hope
For anyone hoping for reform, do not expect it see it in the Assembly anytime soon. If there is one certainty in politics, it is that Sheldon Silver will be voted in as Assembly Speaker in January 2011.

Why such cynicism? It is critical for Rochester voters to understand the hopeless state of the Assembly. New York City-area Democrats in the Assembly currently control a majority of seats in the Assembly. That means that not only are all 42 Republicans irrelevant (at least from a floor vote perspective), but so too are the Upstate Democrats in the majority. So, while Assemblymembers like Joe Morelle, Susan John, David Gantt and David Koon are able to participate in some of the benefits of being in the majority, their influence is limited by numbers. They could unite in opposition to legislation favored by downstate Democrats and it would be pointless. Perhaps this is one reason why John has decided to retire.

130th AD -- Pittsford, Henrietta, Mendon, parts of Ontario, Livingston Counties
In the 130th, Assemblymember Joseph Errigo has announced his retirement. But as noted in an earlier story in the Smugtown Beacon, the Errigo retirement offers little hope for change. Voters in the 130th could choose to return another Republican (the most likely outcome given the district's demographics), or they could elect a Democrat who, as noted above, would be almost as irrelevant. Prospective Democrats wishing to run the 130th should also consider this: the district will cease to exist in two years. When new lines are drawn for the 2012 election, how could the lines of the 130th possibly be redrawn to help a Democrat? A tough win this year would no doubt be followed by an even tougher contest for election in a new district in 2012 -- not the type of prospect that draws out ambitious Democratic candidates.

131st AD -- Chili, Wheatland, Rush and significant parts of the city of Rochester
Assemblymember Susan John's retirement triggered a free-for-all in the 131st District. On the Democratic side, the array of candidates presents grist for hours of political strategizing and number-crunching. Malik Evans has run well city wide in two elections, could benefit from his political base in Rochester and, facing elimination of his current position on Rochester Board of Education, is feeling unfettered. As an opponent of mayoral control, he will receive zero support from the Duffy-Morelle axis of the party, so he will be free to craft his own message and build his own constituency. Ditto Willa Powell, who has also run successfully citywide multiple times, has run for state legislature before and who is also more liberated from the party than she has ever been (though Powell has always been her own person). Powell also has a huge advantage in terms of demographics: with few women in Albany, it would be a shame (she might argue), to lose one of the few seats held by a woman.

Harry Davis, high-speed rail advocate and former candidate for Rochester City Council has also declared his candidacy. Davis will likely relish the challenge of taking on Albany insiderism. Also running is County Legislator Harry Bronson.

On the Republican side, the GOP appears to be coalescing behind Kenneth Kraus, a Chili resident and attorney at a Brighton law firm. Kraus could potentially hand the seat to the Republicans if he can rally the non-city vote and if the overwhelming Democratic advantage in the city fails to turn out. But the bigger question for he 131st AD is this: are they better off with a voice in the majority (albeit one that can be dismissed) or one in the minority? As in the 130th and other upstate Assembly districts, it amounts to little more than a Hobson's choice given the power of downstate Democrats.

132nd AD -- Brighton, Irondequoit and parts of the city of Rochester
Republicans announced a challenger to Morelle recently with significant fanfare. Mark Scuderi, a financial planner from Irondequoit, has received the informal endorsement of party leaders in their quest to send Morelle packing. Their hope is that there is a rising tide in the district, starting in Irondequoit last year, where voters turned out a Democratic supervisor and two town board members. Scuderi is less likely to fare as well in the city and Brighton parts of Morelle's district, though he might be able to break through with mre independent-minded votes.

The key to change in the 132nd is an effective challenge to Morelle from within. Though Monroe County Democratic party leaders have not shown many cracks in their monolithic support of one another, there has been revolt fomenting among the party rank-and-file. The question that remains, however, is whether there is enough foment to bring down a candidate with Morelle's name recognition and bank account (not to mention the fact that Morelle has been willing to break the law to win -- see his conviction for petition fraud earlier in his career). Still, a challenge or challenges from within could make the debate an interesting one: Morelle is the area's leading defender of Albany -- claiming it is not that bad, there are just a few bad apples. Voters might have the opportunity to render their own judgment in a September primary -- and will certainly do so in November.

133rd AD -- Gates and significant parts of the city of Rochester
The 133rd Assembly District has not seen an interesting race in years -- but 2010 could be an exception. The seat is currently held by the "dean" of the region's assembly delegation, David Gantt. Gantt is a fascinating local political figure. He describes himsel as a reluctant politician -- and in some settings seems uninterested in the trappings of power and the chores required to maintain it (contrast this with Sen. Joe Robach who would seem lost without politics in his daily life). But make no mistake, Gantt takes his job seriously and, long with his vocal supporters, is ruthless in pursuing what he believes is fair for his district.

But has Gantt overstayed his welcome among the local electorate? Although his district includes Gates, he makes no apology for his commitment to the urban neighborhoods he represents. And his alliance with Mayor Robert Duffy on the issue of mayoral control has shocked and disappointed some of his supporters. It would not be surprising to see potential challengers emerge from the two constituencies that Gantt has alienated: the voters of Gates (a significant number, though not a majority of the district) and some of his urban supporters who cannot comprehend how a man who has dedicated his life to fighting for the little guy is now throwing his support behind powerful interests that would take away voters' right to elect their own school board. Stay tuned to this contest -- if someone has the courage to take on Gantt, he could find himself in the race of his life.

134th AD -- Greece, Ogden and Sweden
Although Democrats gleefully announced a candidate to challenge Republican Assemblymember (and County Chairman) Bill Reilich, the event was more of a public relations event than an actual campaign kickoff. The candidate leaders presented, Dave Zimmerman, faces an uphill battle. With little name recognition relative to Reilich and a district that chews up and spits out most Democrat, Zimmerman will have to prove he is a different kind of Democrat -- a throwback to the "conservacrats" who once used to be successful in the area by forging a coalition of conservative Democrats, Conservative Party voters and independents. But those days have long passed -- and such coalitions are going to be virtually impossible in an election year as tumultuous as 2010 is predicted to be. Reilich will be cursed by te voters with another 2-year sentence in Albany, where he can continue to draw a decent paycheck, accrue years toward his state pension, but find himself -- in the minority -- unable to change a damn thing in Albany.

135th AD -- Perinton, Penfield, Webster and East Rochester
In theory, the 135th District should be a ripe possibility for a Republican pickup. Yet Democratic Assemblymember David Koon has managed to discourage any strong challenges to him over the years. Koon's political savvy was on display recently when he was mentioned as a potential candidate int he 29th Congressional District. Hmmmm... give up a relatively safe district with good pay, good retirement and little fear that voters will ever revolt to take a seat with only slightly higher pay and much more voter vitriol -- not to mention a district that will be hard to win and one that will likely disappear in 2012? Koon is no fool -- he is staying put. And with little indication of a primary challenge or a strong challenge from the Republicans, it appears he will continue in Albany.

139th AD -- Parma, Hamlin, Clarkson and parts of Orleans, Genesee Counties
Assemblymember Stephen Hawley would probably have to start engaging in raging tickle fights with his staff to jeopardize this seat. It is demographically a strong Republican district, making a Democratic challenge unlikely. Equally unlikely is a Republican primary.

New York State Senate - Ground Zero for Albany control in 2010
If the Assembly is inconsequential in terms of the certainty with which Democrats will continue to reign supreme there), the Senate is the opposite: Democrats cling to a small majority, and while Republican control is not likely, alliances in the Senate will be determined by this year's winners -- and that offers some chance for change.

Consider this: out of the 62 Senate seats, 37 of them are located in the New York City or Long Island. Republicans hold seven of nine Long Island seats and another three within the city. Those republican seats -- some of which they hold by only the barest of margins -- mean downstate Democrats hold only 27 seats. That means they are four seats short of majority control. Why is that significant? It means that Upstate Democrats are NOT irrelevant -- they are necessary if Democrats seek to maintain their Senate majority. Likewise, it makes Upstate Republicans with Democratic constituencies (like Rochester's Jim Alesi and Joe Robach) potential legislative partners with the majority. Thus, unlike the Assembly, where power is irremediably located south and east of Rockland County, the Senate actually provides local voters with a potential, real, voice.

55th SD -- Southern Monroe County, Pittsford, Perinton, Penfield, Irondequoit and parts of Rochester
Long-rumored to be contemplating a switch to the Democrats, Sen. Jim Alesi could well be biding his time, waiting to see how Senate power shakes out. Alesi represents a district that is mostly suburban with some city voters and that tilts Republican -- but could certainly support a moderate, reform-minded Democrat.

Alesi has recently come under fire from the likes of Sandy Parker and the Rochester Business Alliance for not endorsing the mayor's takeover of the public schools. Alesi has not opposed it either -- he simply appears to be waiting to see where a consensus emerges. For Alesi, the risk over this issue is unclear: one could not say that the city is his base, but many of his constituents either live in the city, work in the city or live close enough to it to feel some connection to city issues. And while it appears that suburban elites are tolerating the hypocrisy of supporting a different school governance structure for city residens than they have in their own districts, Alesi has not yet felt pressured by them.

Two years ago, the 55th was considered a high-priority pick up potential for Democrats. They recruited a wealthy executive, David Nachbar, to take on Alesi, thinking that central casting could not have provided a better candidate. But Democrats underestimated Alesi's strength and he went on to win, 60% to 40% with a margin of around 30,000 votes.

This year, Democrats have been more reticent about the Alesi seat. Nachbar has shown little public interest in a rematch, instead mulling a potential bid for the 29th Congressional District seat if the candidate of the party leaders, Matthew Zeller, proves weak. Alesi is also unlikely to face an internal challenge: Republican leaders would pull out all the stops to protect Alesi and maintain his critical seat in the Senate -- unless, of course, they suspect he might follow-through on rumors of a party switch. In short, Alesi holds the cards in the 55th; potential challengers of either party are unlikely to find much support from party leaders.

56th SD -- Parma, Greece, Brighton and significant parts of Rochester
One cannot deny this about Joe Robach: agree or disagree with him, he loves the day-to-day practice of constituent politics and his career has been a combination of good fortune and textbook district service. The good fortune can be galling to Robach opponents: Robach was a somewhat aimless young man living off his father's patronage support when the elder Robach, Roger, passed away suddenly and unexpectedly. Joe, the son, reaped a great deal of goodwill from his father's community service (Roger Robach was truly beloved). Without that goodwill, Robach would not have had the leeway he had to begin his career in the Assembly, then switch parties and chambers in 2002.

Democrats made a strategic blunder in 2002 when they acquiesced to Robach's threats and tacitly endorsed him. True, he had a Democratic opponent in Harry Bronson, but Bronson began his campaign very late, was woefully underfunded and ultimately found his party to be openly hostile to his campaign -- several Democrats endorsed Robach in that race. County Chair Molly Clifford took no action to punish the defectors (showing even then that she was incapable of effectively putting out a fire) and the precedent was set: Robach would be tolerated as "close enough" for Democratic leaders. Their belated effort to resurrect Rick Dollinger in 2008 -- a bitter irony as it was Dollinger's last-minute abandonment of a Robach challenge in 2002 that began the whole mess -- only showed the schizophrenic strategic machinations of the local party.

Today Robach has cultivated enough supporters in the city of Rochester an Brighton to guard against a liberal challenger. And Democrats' failure to gain a foothold in Greece has permitted Robach to run up significant margins there -- easily offsetting the Democratic enrollment advantage in Rochester and Brighton. This year it is impossible to imagine a Republican challenge to Robach. Of course, any Republican believing in small government that lies within its means could certainly take Robach to task for not changing Albany, but most voters know such an effort is Herculean -- and as long as Robach brings home sufficient bacon, they remain content.

What about a Democratic challenge to Robach? Not likely. The local party has no appetite to challenge him (which speaks volumes about their supposed belief that Democrats and Republicans stand for different agendas) and while decent folk can accept losing a fair fight against a political opponent, the undermining of those efforts from one's supposed political allies deters any sincere insurgents from taking the plunge. If you are a Democrat, why take on Robach when the bigger threat to your candidacy is from within your own party?

62nd SD -- Northwest Monroe County, Orleans County, parts of Niagara County
The 62nd district, currently represented by George Maziarz, shows no signs of change. The district favors Republicans and, as stated previously, Republicans are in no mood to endanger a single Senate seat this year. Maziarz has been a reliable vote and maintains district relations sufficiently well to hold the seat. A Democratic challenge would be a steep climb and -- like the possibility of a challenge of David Koon by a Republican -- begs the question: what about 2012? This district will likely look different in two years. Democrats will wait until the new lines are drawn before deploying resources to pick off more upstate Senate seats.

Conclusion
While some interesting contests may emerge locally and three new faces will be seen in Albany from this area, voters have little to hope for at the moment. Unless, that is, some courageous candidates use the next four weeks to do some soul-searching and a little data analysis. The candidates who can defeat local incumbents are out there. And the voters who want change are out there. Someone has to make the first move and then people of goodwill need to be determined, not permitting shoddy locally journalism or haughty presumptive local elites to determine who is or who is not a "legitimate" candidate. The Empire State is in a sorry state, thanks to the current crop of legislators. In June they formally begin the process of asking for your support -- but so too will the few brave souls who will challenge them, and in doing so, offer at least a shred of hope that voters truly control Albany.